By Khaled Diab
Conflict between Nile basin countries has been averted. But unless effective action is taken, a water war remains a distinct future possibility.
Wednesday 22 April 2015
War has been avoided. As Yemen becomes the latest battleground in what future historians might call the Middle East's “World War”, news like this is welcome indeed.
The averted casus belli was the Grand Renaissance Dam – slated to be the largest hydroelectric power plant in Africa – which Ethiopia began constructing in 2011 at the source of the Blue Nile, which supplies some 60% of the great river's water.
This move made Egypt very nervous and angered decision-makers in Cairo. This was owing to fears that the new barrier would adversely affect the flow of water downstream, bringing potential drought and turning Egypt from the “gift of the Nile” into its curse.
Once completed, the dam will actually have a negligible impact on river flow to Sudan and Egypt, unless Ethiopia decides to divert its waters to irrigation projects elsewhere. Ethiopia even claims it will increase water to Egypt because of the lower evaporation levels in its temperate highlands.
However, the 65.5 billion cubic meters –the equivalent of about one year's flow to Egypt – required to fill the Great Renaissance's reservoir troubled Cairo because it could potentially affect millions of farmers and harm the country's electricity-generating capacity.
These fears – both real and exaggerated – prompted Egypt's former president, Mohamed Morsi, to engage in some poetic sabre-rattling. “We will defend each drop of Nile water with our blood if necessary,” he threatened in 2013.
And his government considered moving beyond semantics. A closed cabinet meeting which was accidentally and embarrassingly broadcast live on air showed ministers brainstorming ideas for spreading disinformation, dispatching special forces and backing rebels in Ethiopia.
President Abdel-Fattah al-Sisi, the Morsi-appointed defence minister who ousted his patron following mass protests, began by pursuing a similarly inflexible position, with Egypt lobbying the international community to halt the project.
Despite al-Sisi's reckless willingness to go to war in Yemen and his brutal and violent repression of opposition, he wisely decided that diplomacy was more effective than force with Ethiopia. “We have chosen co-operation, and to trust one another for the sake of development,” al-Sisi said on the occasion of the inking of a declaration of principles between Egypt, Ethiopia and Sudan.
“I confirm the construction of the Renaissance Dam will not cause any damage to our three states and especially to the Egyptian people,” Ethiopian Prime Minister Hailemariam Desalegn reassured.
But despite this landmark deal, we are not out of the woods yet. The three countries still need to agree on the pace at which the new dam's reservoir will be filled – which could prove to be a difficult barrier to cross.
More fundamentally, the longstanding dispute over the allocation of the Nile's water resources is the greatest potential flashpoint. This could escalate the proxy conflicts between Cairo and Addis Ababa into the kind of full-fledged “water war” which experts have been warning about for decades.
Two colonial-era treaties, one from 1929 and the other 1959, allocate the lion's share of the Nile's water resources to Egypt and Sudan, leaving Ethiopia high and dry. Nevertheless, although Egypt gets almost two-thirds of the Nile's 88 billion cubic meters, the country is struggling against water shortages. And with a growing population and global warming, Egypt's needs are likely to grow.
In such circumstances, it is understandable that Egyptians regard any reduction in flow as an “existential threat” and a national security issue of the first degree.
But Ethiopia and the other upstream countries are also completely justified in being vexed at this unfair distribution. When they were not in a position to make use of the Nile's resources, this staggering inequality was not a major issue.
However, this situation has changed radically. Ethiopia is developing rapidly and its population is exploding, reaching over 96 million in 2014, which is larger than Egypt's. Addis Ababa understandably wishes to exploit more of the rains which fall on its territory.
Frustrated at Egyptian-Sudanese obstructionism regarding quotas, a number of upstream countries, including Ethiopia, signed a deal in 2010 seeking to re-assign Nile quotas, which was roundly condemned by Egypt and Sudan.
But the reality is that redistribution does not need to hurt Egypt, as it can actually get by on considerably less water.
For example, though vital, the intricate system of irrigation canals dotting the country shed 3 billion cubic metres in evaporation alone, and more in wasteful usage. In fact, the Irrigation and Improvement Project believes it can save up to 8 billion cubic metres through greater efficiency.
Likewise, Egypt's crumbling domestic water supply network is bleeding water. In Cairo, for instance, 40% of the water supply is wasted, according to government figures. Then, there are the water-intensive cash crops, such as cotton. Egypt must reduce its cultivation of these in favour of crops which are more suited to dry climates.
Above all, Egypt needs to save its arable land, perhaps the most fertile in the world, which is under threat from rapid urbanisation and environmental degradation. Rising sea levels and the Aswan High Dam's retention of the silt which used to regenerate the Nile Delta have placed Egypt's bread basket under severe threat of collapse. This environmental-catastrophe-in-the-making must be addressed urgently.
With the right investment, innovation and planning, the curse of the Nile can be averted and it can continue to be a gift, not just to Egypt, but all the countries through which it flows.
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This article first appeared on Al Jazeera on 11 April 2015.