Mazel tov Egypt!

 
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Michael Feldman*

There are Jews who refuse to succumb to fear and would like to extend their warm congratulations to Egyptians on the occasion of their revolution of hope.

It was clear to me within the first week of the now historic date of 25 January that most of my fellow Jews felt surges of hope for the burgeoning wave of freedom and democracy.  But I also recognised with dismay that, in the political and media worlds, such hope was lost in fear and speculation. 

All that talking heads seemed to ask or offer were opinions on what a new Egyptian regime would mean for Israel.  As if anybody knew.  What I wanted to know was, is this all Egyptians or others in the Arab world would know of Jewish opinion?  The frustration was maddening.  Here was a golden opportunity to express positive feelings that go beyond the politics, beyond the conflicts.  A chance at healing not just for Egyptians, but for those that stand by them.

So what was a person with no political or media connections, no Twitter or Facebook account, and little social action experience to do?  I knew I could write, and I knew that my fellow Jews would support a positive message if given a chance.  I sought the advice and support of rabbis, congregational leaders, and organisational voices.  This is the resulting letter:

Dear Citizens and Friends of Egypt,

 We the undersigned are Jews living in Israel, the United States, and elsewhere around the world.  We are rabbis and laypeople, religious and secular.  We do not have ties to any government.  We simply come together to speak as private citizens and as Jews to voice solidarity with the many Arab citizens involved in the recent uprisings in Egypt and elsewhere.

Too many voices of reason and moderation have long been frustrated or silenced by oppression, tyranny, and corruption.  These proud voices have our empathy and our respect.

We harbor deep hopes for the Egyptian people and the many citizens rising against ruthless regimes around the world.  Jews have struggled against oppression for millennia.  It is true that we want Egypt and Israel to continue or even strengthen their peace and cooperation.  But we also feel unity by witnessing the extraordinary events of recent days.  When a people cries out for freedom and democracy, we see a reflection of our own heritage.

We cannot tell the Egyptian people or world leaders how to deal with the old regime or how to bring about change.  But in the meantime, we pray.  We pray for the healing of any man, woman, or child injured in the recent struggles in Egypt, Tunisia, and elsewhere.  We pray for the souls of the lives lost and for the comfort of their mourners.  And we pray that peace comes not only to Egypt and to Israel, but to all of their neighbors.

May the children of Abraham, of Sarah and of Hagar, of Ishmael and of Isaac, be blessed with prosperity, light, joy, and friendship.

The letter ends is followed by the names of several notable rabbis.  It can be found here and is now gathering Jewish signatures throughout the world.  It may be a small effort, but I am encouraged by how diverse the voices are who have signed it: Orthodox, Reform, Conservative, Renewal, Reconstructionist, secular, and from many corners of the globe.  I am also encouraged by the inspirational words and efforts of the many people that signed on.  By the time Israeli musician Lee Ziv signed, she and her friends had created the following music video in support of the revolution.  

Signatory Alden Solovny had already written a Prayer for Egypt.  And the words of hope that the signatories added where truly inspiring, some coming off the heels of Mubarak’s resignation.  Some of them are represented here, and I will yield to them in conclusion:

“My heart is singing with the Egyptian people. I have not been so happy in a long time. There is much hope now for the whole world.” Dr Sheila Parks, Belmont, MA, United States.

“As a father of a fallen Israeli soldier (Noam Barnea, Lebanon, 1999), I wish to express my special solidarity with the bereaved Egyptian families who lost their beloveds in the wars and in the struggle for achieving democracy and freedom.  With my Israeli and Palestinian friends, we pray for our joint success in building a peaceful, free and prosperous community of peoples in our region.”Aaron Barnea, Holon, Israel.

“An historic day for the people of Egypt. My prayers and admiration to the brave Egyptian young men and women.” Linda Elul, Orlando, FL, United States

“I pray for the success of the forces of democracy and humanity in Egypt.  May they continue to inspire the rest of us here in the Middle East.”  Rabbi Yechiel Greniman, Jerusalem, Israel.

“Congratulations! You have led not only your own country and people, but the whole world into an unprecedented model of Tahrir-making.  May we all be guided likewise to a new era of sustainable living in peace.” Narda Azaria, Hawick, Scotland, United Kingdom.

“Your peaceful outpouring is incredible. Continue to pursue your passion in obtaining the government you deserve.”  Marylin Schnal, Portland, OR, United States.

“I wish for you, my Egyptian brothers, that you show the world, that you lead the world in the walk towards liberty, towards the rule of love and trust, and faith in the great Oneness. May your revolution be part of the love and trust revolution of mankind.” Jivan Ari Bustan, Ramat Hasharon, Israel

*Michael Feldman is an American lawyer based in Los Angeles.

 

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Freedom from fear

 
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By Khaled Diab

The Egyptian revolution could usher in freedom to the Middle East, but Arabs and Israelis must break free of the chains of prejudice, history and fear.

Saturday 19 February 2011

Millions of Egyptians have accomplished what many thought was improbable: They defied their dictator and won. After three decades as Egypt’s uncontested leader, Hosni Mubarak’s downfall has understandably been cause for euphoria and celebration in Egypt and across the Arab world.

Egyptians have made history. But now, they need to ensure that this revolution does not become a footnote in their history.

While the Tunisian and Egyptian revolutions have inspired ordinary Arabs everywhere, they have been largely met with trepidation and fear in Israel. But as a wave of hope and empowerment begins to ripple through the Arab world, it would be a shame and a grave mistake to continue in ‘business-as-usual’ mode on the Arab-Israeli front.

The changing Middle Eastern landscape is a wake-up call to both sides to transform what were once two competing nationalisms (pan-Arab and Zionist ) into complementary ones. The first step toward achieving this is to acknowledge that not everything is the other side’s fault.

Nevertheless, Israelis worry that rather than heralding the dawn of democracy next door, the unfolding revolution marks the sunset of secularism. The frenzied analogies fixate on Iran and 1979, and assume that the Muslim Brotherhood will spearhead a counterrevolution and orchestrate a theocratic takeover of Egypt.

Though I despise the stifling impact of the Muslim Brotherhood on Egyptian society, I doubt this scenario. While the Iranian and Egyptian revolutions share a common denominator in that both were popular revolts against Western-backed despots that took the world by surprise, there are numerous vital differences between them.

One of the most critical is that Egypt has no ‘cult’ religious revolutionary figure like Ayatollah Khomeini. The nearest to a ‘face’ that the Egyptian revolution has is Mohamed ElBaradei, a Nobel Peace Prize winner, seasoned international diplomat and avowed secularist. The only thing the two men share in common is that they returned home to lead something that they didn’t start.

In addition, the Egyptian Sunni clergy – which has long been subservient to the secular authorities – is generally not involved in politics and is not held in the same kind of awe as its Shi’ite counterpart, which was politicized.

As for the Muslim Brotherhood, it was not only a latecomer to the revolution, but is also largely made up of conservative and rather grey laymen who tend to be drawn from the ranks of professionals, i.e. doctors, lawyers and engineers.

Moreover, Egypt today is not Iran circa 1979. The revolution comes at a time when Egypt, which has long had close contact with the West, has had almost two centuries of modernising and secularising experience.

Of course, Israeli fears stem not from whether or not Egypt will become a theocracy – as a friendly theocracy would, I imagine, be all right – but from whether or not the new order will be more hostile to an Israel feeling isolated and insecure.

The Muslim Brotherhood is probably the most hostile party to Israel. However, suspicion, distrust, dislike and fear of Israel cut across party lines, both out of sympathy for the plight of the Palestinians and out of the humiliation Israel has heaped on the wider Arab world. This probably means that the cold Egyptian-Israeli peace will become frostier.

Nevertheless, pragmatism is likely to prevail, and I don’t think any likely Egyptian government would risk reneging on the peace agreement. The army has already demonstrated this with its statement that Egypt will respect all its foreign agreements.

For Israel, the Tunisian and Egyptian revolutions should be taken not as a threat but as an opportunity. Israelis need to realise that the road to their security lies not through Cairo, but through Jerusalem, the West Bank and Gaza.

As the Palestine Papers and before them the Oslo Accords clearly demonstrate, along with Israel’s non-reaction to the Arab Peace Initiative, Israeli intransigence, founded on military might and superpower sponsorship, is no substitute for justice. Authority built on oppression, as Mubarak found out, inevitably crumbles.

Following the revolution, Egyptians would be justified in keeping their economic distance from Israel, but they need to stop cold-shouldering Israelis, because this fuels the popular fear that Arabs are not after peace with Israel, but its defeat and destruction by any means possible. The only way to allay these worries and build the necessary popular groundswell for peace is to engage in a direct, grass-roots conversation and dialogue.

The Egyptian revolution could usher in an era of freedom in the Middle East. But for it to do so, Arabs and Israelis must break free of the chains of prejudice, history and fear.

This article first appeared in Haaretz on 15 February 2011. It was commissioned and distributed by the Common Ground News Service.

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Diary of Dictator M, aged 82¾: fight, not flight

 
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As uncovered by Khaled Diab

In the second leaked extract from his secret diaries, President M is enraged by what he sees as an unpresidented act of cowardice and treachery.

Friday 18 February 2011

14 January 2011

I can’t believe it. I just can’t believe it. How could Zine do it? How could he permit himself to abandon his post like some common criminal fleeing the scene of a crime, rather than staying put like the resistance hero and army man he’s supposed to be?

I don’t know if I can ever forgive cowardice of this sort – and from a man who never tired of boasting about how his political iron fist kept his subjects faithful and his social velvet glove kept them sweet. And to think that he used to berate me for being too soft, for not crushing the independent media and that stupid Kefaya movement calling for my resignation, as if Egypt would be better off without me – I, who fixed the wreck my predecessors left me.

“Let the dogs bark. It’s only when they try to bite or begin to believe that they’re wolves that they need to be culled,” I had told him once nonchalantly, hiding my irritation at his affront to my manhood, in an informal meeting he and I had after a particularly ugly Arab League summit during which that Q (or G as he’s known at home), who thinks he’s Nasser’s prodigy and a film star or something, managed to insult every head of state in the room.

“These ideas of freedom can spread like a deadly virus if not wiped out immediately,” Zine had had the gall to lecture me. “If not for yourself, then think about your brothers in arms.”

“Brothers in arms,” I’d thought, stifling a very unstatesmanly snort of derision. “Where was this brotherhood when Tunisia helped stab Egypt in the back and agreed to the relocation of the Arab League to Tunis?” But not wishing to go down the Q path of insults and silly allegations, I sat up stiffly in my chair to indicate that our time was up. “We have the vaccine for any virus and the antidote for any venom,” I retorted mysteriously. The truly tough don’t need to boast about it. There are men who can do the talking and true men who can do the walking.

On the phone with a visibly rattled and panicky president telling me he was desperately looking around for shelter from the storm, I decided to let loose my years of suppressed annoyance. “Who’s abandoning the cause now, brother Zine? What happened to your iron fist? Did it get blunted by the velvet glove? All these years, have you been a pussy cat pretending to roar like a lion?”

“Even lions know that there comes a time when they are outnumbered and must retreat,” he roared angrily down the phone. “I would advise you to have an exit strategy if you don’t have one already, my dear friend,” he said, calming.

“Exit? Egypt? No way. Not if all hell breaks loose. I am a son of the Nile and I will die on this country’s sacred soil,” I stated defiantly and eloquently, making a mental note that I should use this in a speech to silence all those envious of my power who have to resort to criticising my speaking skills.

“Before you commit your cowardly deed, your action could make the virus you feared for so long mutate into a thousand and one deadly strains,” I warned him. When this had no effect, I tried a different track: “Leaders like us have very few places to hide. The times are changing. They’ll get you extradited back to face trial or say you embezzled from the state and seize all your foreign assets.”

“Don’t worry, my good friend Sarkozy will take me in and my wealth is well-hidden,” he assured me. “And if not, there’s always you, my old friend. You’ve done wonders with Sharm el-Sheikh.”

“Cowards are not welcome here,” I screamed at him, before slamming down the phone and collapsing out of breath. A moment of darkness later, I saw Gamal’s reassuring face staring down at me.

“Don’t get yourself so worked up, father, it’s not good for your condition. You’re still the rayes whether people like it or not,” he comforted me. I smiled up helplessly. I don’t know where I’d be without Gamal’s youth and brains, especially after all the trials of my long and trying career. “And if they try, we ready with plans A to Z to deal with them. And if all else fails, I’ve already prepared a number of escape routes.”

“Escape?” I asked in disbelief. “Even you, Gamal?”

“And we can work together to ensure that your hard-earned fortune is well hidden from prying eyes,” he continued.

Will Dictator M face the ultimate standoff with his ungrateful people? Will he stay to fight or will he take flight? Find out in the next leaked entry. Coming soon. Read part I

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From political revolution to social evolution

 
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By Khaled Diab

To truly succeed, Egypt’s revolution needs to trigger a profound evolution in every strata of society.

Thursday 17 February 2011

Revolutions are things that happen elsewhere. But despite all the talk of Egyptians being too apathetic, docile, cynical or sceptical, or all these combined, here, too, there be a revolution.

And what a revolution it is proving to be. It is almost as though history has woken up, realised it had forsaken Egypt for too long and decided to move it from slow motion to fast-forward by packing a century’s worth of events into a few short days.

Though I had expected a standoff between the various opposition groups and the Mubarak regime this year because of the presidential elections, I never in my wildest dreams anticipated anything on this epic and almost universal scale.

For millions of Egyptians, including myself, 25 January marked a watershed moment in our collective identity, and the ride since that fateful day has been an emotional rollercoaster, with elation and pride at the courage and dedication of the protesters; admiration of their solidarity, creativity and goodwill; disgust and despair at the tactics of the regime; and hope and nervousness about the future.

The drama tells a tale of two Egypts. On the one side, there are the protesters, overflowing with vibrancy, irresistible energy, inventiveness and, above all, egalitarianism. On the other side, the dinosaurs of Egypt’s Jurassic age stumble around and lash out wildly following the crash of the meteorite that is destroying their world. And the dinosaur-in-chief himself has left the building in what was perhaps the most beautiful moment that any Egyptian alive today could remember. 

While debate in Egypt has focused on post-Mubarak politics and, in the outside world, on fears of an Islamist takeover and what the uprising will mean for western interests and relations with Israel, the question of post-revolutionary social change has been forgotten in the stampede.

In the early days of the revolution, I wrote that, though Egyptians look likely to throw off Hosni Mubarak’s repressive rule and, hopefully, replace it with a democracy, this would not mark the end of authoritarianism in Egypt, unless they dealt with the million mini-Mubaraks – in politics, in the home, in academia, in business – holding the country back.

So, what are the chances that the Egyptian revolution will spark a positive social evolution? Well, there are some promising signs in Egyptians’ obstinate refusal to compromise on their demands, their willingness to speak their minds and their refusal to cower in front of authority. “People in Egypt have changed quite a bit: they now know that they are willing and able to take matters into their own hands,” says and Egyptian friend, Nicholas Accad.

This is epitomised in what some protesters have jokingly been calling the “Free Republic of Tahrir”. Karim Medhat Ennarah, a young protester who was on the square since the very first days, describes it as a “little utopia”.

“The social problems that have plagued Egypt for years seem to have dissolved,” he said of the mood among protesters. “Class distinctions have faded, religious and social tensions have disappeared. There is virtually no sexual harassment. No one feels superior to anyone else, and no one feels disenfranchised.”

But the relative mayhem and anarchy unleashed by Mubarak’s supporters and thugs, though it elicited a renewed sense of civic duty and solidarity among many, also shed a stark light on the harsh class divisions within Egyptian society. “Egypt does not just have one dictator, but many little dictators whom you can see every day on the streets, such as the vigilantes who were thoroughly enjoying the new task assigned to them by the absence of police: terrorising Egyptian citizens who dare to waltz into their neighbourhoods, especially the more affluent ones,” Karim observed.

Other Egyptians I have spoken to are divided in their opinion as to how far-reaching the Egyptian revolution will prove socio-economically. During a long phone conversation with one friend, we were both doubtful that a democratic Egypt, though it may improve the lot of the poor, would manage to narrow, in any significant sense, the wide chasm between the haves and the have-nots, as demonstrated by how the army and many better-off protesters have been calling on strikers to go back to work.

This will especially be the case since it looks like there’ll be tough economic times ahead – especially if Egypt is punished economically for its democratic choice by the dictatorship of the global markets – and there’s been little talk of heavier taxation, fair minimum wages and other re-distributive measures.

It also remains to be seen whether Egyptians will be able to create a better meritocracy, weed out the corruption that has set in like rot, and overcome the culture of ‘wasta’.“Egyptians will be the same. Changing governments won’t change mentalities,” says Ahmed Dessouki, sounding a note of caution and pessimism. “We should change from head to toe. The revolution was a good start, but we shouldn’t forget ourselves.”

But for many, the most significant change in Egypt has been a revolution of the mind, a discovery of the possible. “The revolution has already changed many Egyptians,” believes Noura Elhawary. “I don’t think the Egyptians who participated in the protests will accept to be humiliated by anyone after that, or not ask for their rights after that.”

Events in Egypt have also triggered a major change in outlook among Arabs in general. “Something changed in all of us, I believe. It has shown us that we are not mere extras in a script,” says Khaled Dabbagh, a Palestinian. “May the revolution not only survive but continue.”

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Political idealism triumphs over Egypt’s cruel political reality

 
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By Osama Diab

The power of an idea proved stronger than tanks, water cannons and bullets.

Thursday 16 February 2011

When I saw images of Tahrir Square’s peaceful-but-angry protesters gathering in the hundreds of thousands, I involuntarily linked them in my mind to images of police mistreatment of citizens, such as a man with one foot inside a public bus and the rest of his body hanging out, risking his life to go home. I knew that among these protesters were Egyptians who spent a big chunk of their lives waiting patiently in line for subsidised bread. I knew among them were mothers who had lost their sons, sunk in ships in an illegal and desperate attempt to seek a better life on the other side of the Mediterranean.

When I saw the protests in Tahrir Square, pictures of Khaled Said’s fractured skull [warning: exremely graphic image], of Emad Elkebir being sodomised with a cane by a police officer, of protesters being kidnapped by plain-clothed National Democratic Party thugs sprang to my mind. I remembered doctored pictures, state TV lies and the massive media outlets funded by our money to act as the propaganda arm of former president Mubarak’s regime. I remembered waking up every single morning of my life to Mubarak on the first page of the al-Ahram state-run newspaper on our breakfast table.

When I saw the anger, frustration, determination, resilience and great hope in a better future in the eyes of protesters, I also remembered what those who dreamed of change had to face other than state-security intimidation – except until a few months ago, those who have dreamed of change were scattered, unconnected, unorganised and weak.

These millions of people trying to pull down the Mubarak dictatorship have been told that political idealism is one thing and political reality is another. Political idealism in this battle was represented by protesters camping in Tahrir, driven by the desire for fresh political change, democracy, restoration of their dignity and a better future for their kids. They were armed with nothing but faith, sheer determination and great courage.

Political reality favours short-term, fake stability at the expense of freedom, human dignity and social justice.

For a long time, political idealists were accused of being naive. The power of their ideas – of liberty, freedom and justice – has always been underplayed. Ending the Egyptian dictatorship seemed like a mission impossible. It wasn’t a fight against one man, but against all Arab dictatorships, Israel and the United States, which all had vested interests in keeping Mubarak in power.

This scepticism was completely justified. Mubarak’s authoritarian infrastructure was a brilliant combination of three things: military loyalty, horrifying state security and intelligence apparatuses, and a ruling party of billionaire businessmen who help with funding this whole process of maintaining the status quo in return for “economic favours”. What is more, all this was internationally backed due to Mubarak’s good friendship with Israel – or, better said, Mubarak’s unquestioned obedience to Israel.

Amid all these challenges, how did peaceful protesters, armed with nothing but a love of dignity, freedom and social justice win this battle against political realism, despite the arrests of its members, the torture and killings? How did the mighty state security force collapse in a matter of a few hours? How was a cabinet of wealthy businessmen dismissed in a matter of days? How did one of the world’s worst dictators fall in just 18 days?

It’s because the power of an idea proved much stronger than the power of tanks, water cannons, bullets, batons, tear gas and Molotov cocktails. When the idea is right, it can prove more resilient than an out-of-its-mind police state, which wouldn’t hesitate before running over [warning: extremely graphic footage] peaceful protesters with ugly armoured vehicles.

I salute those who turned one of the world’s strongest men into one of its weakest, as well as those who did not favour a fake stability imposed by the heavy hand of brutal security over a stability driven by social equality and political freedom. But, most importantly, I salute those who gave their lives so that others can enjoy a better one.

This article first appeared in the New Statesman on 14 February 2011.

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The Arabic for freedom

 
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By Khaled Diab

By toppling their dictator, Egyptians have made history, but now they need to ensure that this revolution does not become a footnote in their history.

Saturday 12 February 2011

One day, I couldn’t believe he was staying. The next day, I could hardly comprehend that he was actually going. Hosni Mubarak’s vacating of the presidency reminds me of that old song by The Clash

Despot, come on and let us know

Why do you stay; when will you go

It’s always seize, seize, seize

You’re happy when we’re on our knees

 After his obstinate performance on Thursday night when he refused to step down with whatever shreds remained of his dignity, I was so downhearted, and I’m hundreds of miles away from the action, that I can only imagine the overwhelming wave of frustration, anger and despondency that must’ve torn through the hearts of all the protesters on Tahrir square and massed elsewhere across the country. 

By the next morning, I’d penned an open letter to our dictator who obviously thought it was beneath him to be dictated to by his “sons and daughters”, thereby ensuring, with his undignified refusal to exit left (or any other direction), that Egyptians would only ever remember the worst about him. 

I told him – not, of course, that he was likely to be reading this open letter or any of the others I’d written to him over the years – how much Egyptians loathed him and how he had “the extraordinary knack for snatching mediocrity from the jaws of greatness”. I warned him that “Egyptians have discovered their own latent power” and that they would “write their own future”. 

And the very next day, on Friday 11 February, the millions of Egyptians who have taken to the streets did just that, when Mubarak’s resignation was announced unceremoniously by his recently appointed vice president and intelligence chief and palace executioner, Omar Suleiman.

Just as our wise former leader warned, he’s departure has left chaos in its wake: a beautiful, sweet, intoxicating chaos in which millions are partying to the beat of their own freedom. It was the chaos of a football crowd after the biggest win in its history; the euphoria as high as if a third-division club had somehow won the World Cup. To borrow again from The Clash, the news rocked the midan and thousands of midans, streets and alleys across the country, not to mention the region and the world. 

Even here, so far away from the action, and even though I contributed little to the revolution beyond my sympathy and words, I was gripped by joy, elation, a slight sense of disbelief and relief that he was finally over. I was overwhelmed that Egyptians managed to dethrone their dictator after three decades and convince the army that it was time to deliver on its six-decade-old promise of a transition to democracy in under three weeks. My brother jokingly says he wants to write a book entitled The guide to overthrowing a dictator in just 18 days. 

It just goes to show that the mighty are not as mighty as they seem, and that the regime’s power had been hollow for years and it survived simply because not enough people realised this or believed it. So, thank you Tunisia, and Egypt’s savvy youth, for convincing ordinary Egyptians that the opposition was not fighting a losing battle and that true freedom was not a lost cause. 

But the party will soon be over, and the revellers will wake up with a hangover when they realise what a monumental wreck the regime has left behind. Revolutions succeed when they overthrow the old order, but they cannot cry victory until they have replaced it with something better. So many past revolutions ended in disappointment, disillusionment, frustration, or even the creation of a worst monster than what went before it. To avoid this fate, after the Egyptian revolution, there must come evolution, not devolution, on every front: the political, the economic, the social and the cultural.

The challenges ahead are truly mind-boggling in their complexity. How do you manage the transition to democracy? How do you convince the army, after almost 60 years in power, to return to their barracks and leave the country to the civilians to run? How do you neutralise the once-might state security apparatus and ensure it is not resuscitated or does not go renegade? 

How do you ensure that the civilians who take over don’t replace one dictatorship with another? How do you shore up the institutions of the state so that none have excessive power? How do you guarantee that the will of the people is done, while ensuring a fair society and justice for all, including religious minorities and non-believers, women, not to mention those with other sexual orientations? Exciting as the revolution was, it was costly in human and economic terms. How do you prevent the need for future ones by not only responding to the will of the people but creating a clear and transparent mechanism for the regular transfer of power? 

Then, there are the massive economic challenges. The desire for decent jobs and economic dignity were among the primary reasons that brought people out on to the streets, particularly the young, the unemployed and underemployed, the poor and the lower middle classes. How do you create enough opportunities for such a large population in a relatively resource-constrained country? How do you build greater economic equality, or at least bridge the yawning chasm, between the haves and the have-nothings? How do you deal with the dictatorship of the global marketplace and the economic imperialism of the great powers and large corporations in a way that does not harm the people? 

On the social and cultural fronts, the challenges are no less perplexing. How do you weed out the corruption that has seeped into every layer of society? How do you get people to live within the system rather than parallel to it or through its backdoors? After this dramatic period is over, will Egyptians remain politically active and pay taxes responsibly (particularly the wealthier)? 

Will we replace the current wasta-ocracy with a meritocracy? How about Egypt’s attitude to authoritarianism? Will we rise up against and neutralise all the mini-Mubaraks stifling the country’s creative and innovative energies? Will we invest more and better in education? Will Egypt finally make full use of its abundant youth? Will Egyptians free their minds or allow them to be held back by the suffocating brand of religion that has swept through the country in recent years? 

Young as it is, the revolution has already answered many questions regarding the ability of Egyptians to rise up and be counted, stand up for their rights, and instigate a process of peaceful change. But, as you can see from the above, many more questions loom on the horizon.

Whatever the future holds, one thing is for certain, Tunisians and Egyptians are in the galvanising process of defining the modern Arabic for freedom, and armed with that houriya, the future is theirs for the taking.

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Open letter: Mubarak, we loathe you

 
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By Khaled Diab

Mr Mubarak, you have the extraordinary knack for snatching mediocrity from the jaws of greatness. But the Egyptian people will write their own future.

Friday 11 February 2011

To our beloathed leader,

Never have so many people awaited one of your speeches with such breathless anticipation. Sadly, for you, it was neither out of love for their leader nor out of admiration for your oratorial skills.

The whole of Egypt, most of the Arab world and millions across the globe were glued to their television sets believing that they would finally hear you utter those magic, wonderful, sweet, magic words. Everyone was excited. The army had said earlier that all the people’s demands would be met when you addressed the nation. Even the Americans seemed convinced that your resignation was in the bag, and Barack Obama waxed lyrical about how the Egyptian people were writing history.

But they are writing it no thanks to you, as you seem hell-bent on rewriting it. The only help you have given is in the most negative sense. You have succeeded in unifying a nation against a common enemy, yourself.

You have the extraordinary knack for snatching mediocrity from the jaws of greatness. You had one final chance to redeem yourself, to salvage some modicum of a legacy by announcing, using the presidential decrees you’ve abused for so long, sweeping reforms to meet all the protesters demands – including a transitional government made up of a ‘Council of the Wise’, free and fair democratic elections, and the limiting of the powers of the presidency – and then resigned.

Instead, as is your wont, you failed to rise to the occasion. When you finally appeared on air, a couple of hours late, you delivered a recorded message that was a study in mundanness and cliché. With the pallor of a made-up corpse in an ill-lit funeral parlour, you spoke like someone who lost all feeling.

Even when you finally expressed sympathy for the fallen, you did it like a sociopath, without emotion, without any acknowledgement that it was your security apparatus and goons who caused these deaths. And when you sought to express empathy with the protesters, you employed a tone of contempt and condescension by attributing it all to youthful zeal. “I was young, too,” you claimed. Yes, you were, in the Jurassic age.

You droned on and on and on again about the six decades of service and sacrifice you’d given to the nation, as if anyone had forced you to do that in a country that would’ve been happy if you’d retired a decade ago, while most wouldn’t have been too disappointed – or even cognisant – if you’d never become president.

You arrogantly called us your children, but we’re not, we’re your hostages, although I managed to escape your cloying clutches years ago. You said it was out of concern for the well-being of Egyptians and Egypt that you would not cede your throne until September to ensure an orderly transition of power.

But what does orderly mean to you, Mr Mubarak? Does it mean finally letting the Egyptian people enjoy their full freedom and exercise their will? Or, more ominously, does it mean restoring your idea of  “order”, waiting for the protesters to disperse, and then crushing dissent?

Well, those days are long, Mr ex-president, the game has changed and so have the rules of engagement. Although I remember how much people feared you, and how much more they feared your predecessors, you cannot intimidate or frighten the Egyptian people anymore, as they have bravely demonstrated day in and day out, and as their determination now to march on your palace eloquently shows.

You claim that you are not clinging on to power like some addict who can’t live without a hit refusing to let go of his needle, but because you want to avoid the chaos. But can’t you see that it is only your departure that will avert anarchy? Or do you mean that you are Egypt and Egypt is you?

Over the years, you had so many chances to leave with dignity and pride, and be hailed as the father of Egyptian democracy. After the assassination of your predecessor and the tumultuous last years of his reign, you could have grasped that the Egyptians were already desperate for dignity and freedom and you could have acted as a temporary transitional leader to take the country to that safe port.

Every time, you came to rewrite the constitution to allow you to run for another term in office, you faced increasingly mounting opposition, yet you refused to read the writing on the wall. In 2005, you could’ve made Egypt’s first multi-candidate election a truly democratic race, and perhaps have even been re-elected, but this time with a true mandate, but you let that opportunity slip away from you, as well. And now you and Egypt must reap the storm.

However, despite all the chaos and anarchy you have spread, I am glad of one thing: that when Egyptians gain their freedom it will be because of their own actions and determination, and despite you, not thanks to you. Egyptians will be able to look back on this time with the pride that when the moment of reckoning came they managed to seize their rights with their own hands, and not bestowed upon them by some magnanimous greater power.

Egyptians have discovered their own latent power and, for that, I applaud them.

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Dispatch from Tahrir: Fighting Egypt’s petty dictators

 
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Frustrated at Mubarak's inability to grasp their demands, protesters hold up a handy flowchart. ©Karim Medhat Ennarah

By Karim Medhat Ennarah

Outside the utopian bubble of Tahrir square, petty dictators are filling the security void.

Friday 11 February 2011

Over the past two weeks, since the night of Friday 28 January, the ‘Friday of Rage’, the protesters occupying Tahrir square have turned it into a little utopia, a world unto itself where people shed their differences and became united behind one goal: bringing an end to Mubarak’s oppressive rule. Everything else is irrelevant. The social problems that have plagued Egypt for years seem to have dissolved in the solidarity and egalitarianism that have become the defining characteristic of the community of peaceful protesters in Tahrir. Class distinctions have faded, religious and social tensions have disappeared. There is virtually no sexual harassment. No one feels superior to anyone else, and no one feels disenfranchised.

That is what it feels like in Tahrir every day, but the streets outside Tahrir were becoming increasingly dangerous. On Wednesday 2 February, when Mubarak unleashed thugs mounted on horses and camels in a violent attempt to take back Tahrir square, and as the events of the day unfolded, it became clear to us that we were not just battling Mubarak, we were fighting against a security apparatus that is still alive and kicking despite the humiliating defeat of Friday 28 January, and that had a chance to regroup and launch another assault.

We were fighting against those who were still willing to attack pro-democracy protesters with knives and sticks and Molotov cocktails in return for 50 pounds and a meal; we were also fighting against many ordinary Egyptian citizens who were easily manipulated by state TV’s message that it is actually the protesters – and not Mubarak’s arrogance – who were destroying Egypt’s economy. We managed to hold Tahrir square on Wednesday against waves of attacks by hired thugs.

At the end of the day, we were joking about how the square is now ready to declare independence and become the Free Republic of Tahrir. We have our own minister of interior who planned defence strategies against the attacks that were coming from all entrances to the square. We have community mobilisers bellowing into microphones, directing people towards the areas that were close to being overwhelmed by the forces of thuggery and trying to keep up morale. We have doctors and paramedics who set up medical units at several points between the centre of the square and the ‘frontline’. We also have volunteers going out to bring food, water and medical supplies. And the atmosphere of solidarity has not changed.

Battered, bruised and tired but free. Protesters in take a well-deserved rest in Tahrir. ©Karim Medhat Ennarah

But outside Tahrir chaos reigned and the atmosphere was depressing during the second week of protests. On Tuesday and Wednesday morning, after Mubarak’s second speech, we were being sworn at and attacked by ordinary citizens who were fed up with the standstill that the county has come to, oblivious to the fact that Mubarak is forcing this standstill on the country – effectively holding the county and its population hostage – until the protesters give in. This attitude changed slightly, after the independent press showed images of the “Battle of Tahrir”. The majority of those who were decrying Egypt’s lost stability and who were appeased by Mubarak’s Tuesday speech changed their minds, or at least were forced into shameful silence.

But the opinions of those people and the attitudes of many other Egyptians made me realise that we had become complacent when we thought that Egypt in its entirety is supporting us. It goes without saying that many changes are needed in Egypt before we can achieve real democracy. Egypt does not just have one dictator, but many little dictators whom you can see every day on the streets, such as the vigilantes who, during the week when most state institutions ceased to exist, were thoroughly enjoying the new task assigned to them by the absence of police: terrorising Egyptian citizens who dare to waltz into their neighbourhoods, especially the more affluent ones. And the attitudes of the institutions like the police and military will not change overnight; it will take a very long time.

One of my friends who lives in the upper-class neighbourhood of Zamalek, and who walks back to Zamalek from Tahrir every night during the curfew hours, was telling me about the modus operandi of those on “Neighbourhood Watch”: anyone who does not look sufficiently upper-class is not allowed in. The vigilantes walk around with dogs and are armed to the teeth with clubs and knives and even shotguns.

They are enjoying their power trip, and their machismo is aroused by the thought that they are protecting their women’s chastity while they make them tea and cookies to help them stay out on the streets for hours on end.  In the wee hours of the night, they get in their cars, drive out to the adjacent poor neighbourhoods of Imbaba and Boulaq and arrest anyone whom they think looks suspicious. Class distinctions, entirely absent in Tahrir square, have never been more accentuated in the other neighbourhoods of Cairo. This is the defence strategy of Mubarak and whoever is left of his cronies, to increase social and political divisions between the people of Egypt.

On Thursday 3 February, I was walking with two of my friends and a foreign female journalist towards Garden City, an upper-class neighbourhood just outside Tahrir Square. We were stopped by a band of residents on neighbourhood watch, who were  displaying their colourful array of weapons and dressed in extremely ostentatious, home-designed combat gear. One of them went so far as to wear a Kevlar vest. They refused to let us in, and reported the presence of a “female foreigner” to the military police, which the military police found problematic in many respects.

The regime has recently resorted to extremely desperate measures, and was now spreading xenophobic fear and arresting foreign journalists as collaborators and instigators. They arrested us on the charge of breaking the curfew, and then they found photos of tanks and armoured vehicles from Tahrir on my camera and decided to up the ante against us. We were detained at the military police checkpoint, where the officers were sipping tea with another group of Garden City vigilantes.

The vigilantes entered into arguments with us about the protests. They regurgitated the same line that I had heard from people in my neighbourhood, Heliopolis, who did not care that Egyptians were being attacked with tear gas and live ammunition, that 300 of their fellow citizens were killed over the past week by Mubarak’s regime, but whose only concern was that their home supply of imported dog food was running short and their weekends had become monotonous.

The military police officers felt the same way. We stood aside and waited for their commander to make a decision about us. I started chatting with one of the conscripted soldiers. I asked him not to believe the lies that were being spread about protesters, I told him that those people, those hating residents of Garden City, are the only beneficiaries of Mubarak’s rule, that their only concern is protecting their vast wealth, and that people like me and him are the ordinary citizens who fuelled the revolution. In very hushed tones, he acknowledged that what I said was correct, and expressed timid support for us.

We were transferred to a military checkpoint close to another one of Tahrir’s exits. After a brief interrogation by an intelligence officer and a thorough search by the military, they found some curious items in my backpack, which, along with everything else, led to them to believe that my friends and I were probably foreign spies. We stayed all night at the checkpoint, waiting to be transported to military intelligence for further interrogation. Hordes of people were brought in during the curfew hours, most of them looking incredibly destitute. Some had no IDs on them, some were drugged vagabonds, but others were going to or coming from Tahrir and were mainly arrested for looking poor.

While they were being interrogated only one of them dared to say, after some hesitation, that he was going to Tahrir to join the protesters. “Why?” asked one of the officers. He answered, in Basilect Egyptian Arabic, that he wanted freedom. The officers laughed and asked him to define freedom. “Freedom is when police officers respect me on the street,” he offered. The laughter in response was even louder. I felt a sudden sense of despair; I thought that all that we had been fighting for and that we thought we had achieved has been lost.

The vigilantes, or popular committees as they like to style themselves, who received orders from uniformed police and from the military, were taking an active part in the arrest of suspicious people – and suspicious, to them, meant anyone who looked impoverished. Those derelicts received a different treatment. They were tied and occasionally beaten by one of the more power-hungry officers, though the army still treated them better than the police ever would have. They were given food and water, and allowed to use the bathroom when they asked for it. 

The officers were middle class and well educated, and they engaged us in political debate. The company commander was rather eloquent, but was also completely brainwashed into believing in the conspiracy theory that the unrest was being instigated and sustained by foreign forces. The Egyptian regime weaved one of the wildest conspiracy theories that I have ever heard of: an uncanny collaboration between the USA, Israel, Iran, Pakistan, Afghanistan, Hamas, the Muslim Brotherhood, as well as several fast-food chains was behind the protests.

The officers tried arguing with us and convincing us that an array of foreign “elements” was controlling us and supplying us with food and money. They seemed oblivious to the fact that the Kevlar vests they wore and the tanks they manned were made in the United States, or funded by its military aid to Mubarak’s regime. I heard an officer speaking on the phone saying “You caught an Afghan at the end of the street? Bring him here.” I shook my head in disbelief. I was surprised at how blighted they were despite being relatively well educated. It was also clear to me that most of the military were loyal to Mubarak and harboured some antipathy towards the pro-democracy protesters.

The officers uncuffed my friends and I – the more privileged group of detainees – and allowed us to sit outside under the guard of a few conscripted soldiers. The conscripts were not very different from the ones I spoke to at the military police checkpoint: they all belonged to Egypt’s most oppressed classes. The army officers manning the checkpoint were turning away anyone trying to enter Tahrir, one of them told me that they would be very strict that Friday – the Friday of Departure.

In the early hours of the morning three American embassy cars, followed by the very familiar white van carrying their protection force composed of US marine officers, arrived at the checkpoint, probably heading towards the US embassy which is nearby. The army, naturally, let them pass without a word. An officer told them that this route is blocked and that it was better for them to take an alternative route. They did that and returned five minutes later. An embassy car accidentally ran over one of the checkpoint’s barricades. The car did not stop, and the soldiers quietly put up the barricade again. I wondered, how could those army officers actually believe that the United States had any interest in overthrowing Mubarak when they have just seen a very tangible example of US arrogance in Egypt that the Mubarak regime nurtured for three decades.

While we were waiting, a number of ambulances drove down the road and parked just outside Tahrir. Amongst them was a mega-ambulance that could apparently accommodate 19 people. I asked one of the officers, “What are you guys going to do to us today?” He chuckled and said, “Don’t worry, these ambulances are for our soldiers.” After a while, we were interrogated again, this time by the intelligence bureau and military intelligence. For that, we had to be blindfolded. Our hands were tied behind our backs and we were made to sit on our knees. We remained in this position for one or two hours. The interrogation was on and off, and the army officers engaged us in chatter in between.

Then one officer, presumably from military intelligence, walked in and sent orders to put us into a car. We were escorted outside, where we stood for a few minutes, blindfolded and palpitating with fear of what was awaiting us. The conscripts who were guarding us earlier tried to comfort us. “ ‘A’ , give me an update”, my friend, standing behind me in line, asked one of the conscripts whose name I will withhold. “Don’t worry,” said A, “you’ll be fine, just don’t argue with them too much”.

“Pray for us, A,” I said.

Another conscript, H, whispered into my ears “It’s me, H, I’m praying for you too.” 

The officer was bellowing into a microphone as if he was preparing his troops for the invasion of Poland. We were put into a van that drove off, only to stop 10 minutes later to pick up more people. The van was really crowded at that point; we were stacked on top of each other. My head was tilted backwards in an uncomfortable position, and someone’s face was thrust into the right side of mine. For the entire duration of the trip, I could hear him incessantly praying in hushed, fearful tones.

After a while, the car stopped. My friends and I were named and told to get out of the car. The blindfolds were removed and we found ourselves on one of Cairo main arteries, surrounded by three heavyset officers wearing black Kevlar vests and carrying shotguns. We assumed they were military intelligence, mostly because they returned our belongings and our money, something which the police or state security would never do. “We can tell that you guys are good, educated citizens. We don’t think that what you are doing is entirely wrong, but we don’t think it’s entirely right either. Just be careful and think clearly about what you are doing. Good luck.” They saw us off with these words. Once again, our protected status as upper-middle class people with “respectable” jobs saved us, while the poor derelicts that were detained with us were taken to an unknown fate.

We were all very tired, disoriented and the mood was despondent and pessimistic. But we called our friends who told us that in Tahrir the crowd of protesters coming for “Departure Friday” had already crossed the million mark. A little bit of optimism seeped into our souls. We are holding our ground, and the thugs and vigilantes were slowly disappearing from the streets of Cairo as life outside Tahrir returned to its normal pace.

But even if we manage to depose Mubarak, the forces of oppression are still with us. We still have to fight the battle against the little dictators who are everywhere in Egypt, amongst the ranks of ordinary citizens, against class divisions and social attitudes, against disguised ignorance and half-educated, self-righteous individuals like the ones who assumed the role of the police and who managed to surpass the cruelty of their predecessors. This one is going to be a painfully long battle, but it can only begin with regime change.

©Karim Medhat Ennarah. All rights reserved

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Why Mubarak shouldn’t stay until September

 
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By Osama Diab

If Mubarak’s security apparatus tightens its grip on power, Egypt will turn into a North Korean-style dictatorship.

9 February 2011

The recent apocalypse-like incidents in Egypt will cast a shadow on the Egyptian people for years to come. The psychological impact of this state of anarchy and lawlessness will change Egyptian identity for ever. The Egypt that existed before 25 January has changed irrevocably.

For the thousands standing in Tahrir Square, the last 10 days were a mixture of peaceful expression, optimism, frustration and fear, of both turning back and what will happen to the country if they give up. Desperate to hold on to nine more months of power, President Hosni Mubarak’s regime showed the world his dark, ruthless capabilities – a brutality long familiar to the Egyptian population – which left behind 300 dead and 5,000 injured in less than two weeks, according to Egyptian ministry of health figures.

The important question now is what Egypt would be like if Mubarak succeeds in tightening his grip on power again, after the most serious challenge to his rule since he took power in 1981.

During his 30 years in power, Mubarak has been known as a benign dictator who has given his people a margin of freedom and expected them in return to be grateful, and careful about misusing it to speak out against him.

In contrast to his fellow dictators in nearby Libya, Syria and Sudan, the president was respected by world leaders for keeping peace with Egypt’s historical enemy, Israel, and sometimes going the extra mile to defend Israel’s interests with even more passion than Israel would show in protecting her own interests. This made him a good friend of the United States. US support of Egypt has, however, been criticised. The US was constantly accused of backing up dictatorships as long as they applied a World Bank economic agenda and were kind to Israel.

This made Mubarak a soft dictator compared to his Arab nationalist, socialist and anti-Western friends in Libya and Syria. His partnership with the United States, as well as Egypt’s increasingly integrated economy, based on a World Bank agenda, forced the regime to carry out some (mostly cosmetic) reforms. Within the narrow margin of liberty allowed by the regime, however, political dissidence grew and voices calling for change and democracy became louder each year. As Mubarak’s promises of reform proved empty, pressure on the US by the Congress and pro-democracy activists increased to stop funding one of the world’s 20 worst dictators.

Political pressure on Washington peaked in the aftermath of the events of 25 January, when President Barack Obama started actively calling for Mubarak to step down. Mubarak’s need for Washington’s support is a major reason why his regime was relatively gentle to his internal opponents or criticism. Now that Cairo and Washington are not the best friends they used to be, there is little incentive to halt the violence and censorship that security forces imposed during the past week. The first sign of this was the regime’s crackdown on foreign journalists, for long believed to be untouchable by the Mubarak regime. The attack on them took place immediately after Obama’s request for Mubarak to step down.

Now Egypt is at an important crossroads. If the revolution succeeds in overthrowing Mubarak, the people of Egypt will be able to orchestrate a peaceful and smooth transformation to a truly democratic political system, including a new civil constitution and locally and internationally monitored free and fair elections. The country will experience the end of emergency rule, and the arrival of a civil, non-theocratic and non-military political system. Of course there will be some hurdles along the way, but Egyptians paid too huge a price in their struggle for democracy, enduring previously unmatched horror for almost two weeks, to give up on it easily. Their new and hard-won democracy will be protected vigilantly by the people to ensure it does not slip into a military or a religious dictatorship.

But if Egyptians fail to remove the Mubarak regime, which seems an increasingly unlikely scenario, it is possible that a North Korean-type dictatorship – or worse – will take hold if the president manages to tighten his grip on power again. This fear is why many protesters do not not trust his promise to step down in September, especially coming from a man who is known to have left a long trail of empty promises behind him.

Always one to learn from his mistakes, Mubarak, it is likely, will disperse even the smallest protests in the future, rooting out any dissent. The operation of foreign media is likely to become tightly controlled by the state. New social media – one of the catalysts for the revolution – will be subject to larger scrutiny, and probably more activists will end up in prison. In short, the ruthlessness of the regime will increase as it stops chasing American approval and financial aid.

This is why many of the brave protesters continue to gather by the millions around Tahrir Square at the heart of the Egyptian capital: the impending so-called chaos that Mubarak warns of if he leaves office is far less harrowing than the restrictions and brutality that await Egyptians if he does not. Unluckily for Mubarak, many of the demonstrators see it as a choice between freedom and the leader rather than chaos and the leader.

The recent developments will affect the country’s collective identity for decades to come. A new Egypt is born, but its features are still undefined. The next few days will decide what Egypt and the region will be like decades from now. Until then, all fingers remain crossed and all eyes remain on Tahrir Square.

This article was first published in The New Statesman on 7 February 2011. Republished here with the author’s permission. ©Osama Diab. All rights reserved.

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When the revolution comes…

 
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By Khaled Diab

A democratic Egypt will not go to war with Israel, but for the cold peace to thaw, Israel must ends its occupation.

9 February 2011

The unfolding revolution in Egypt has not only caused nervousness among Arab dictators but it has also sent shockwaves throughout Israeli society, with fears that the end of the Mubarak dictatorship will lead to an Islamist takeover of the country, the tearing up of the peace treaty between the two countries and perhaps even full-out war.

But are these fears justified? Could Egypt really become the next Middle Eastern theocracy? Well, in my honest opinion, those who warn or fear such an eventuality have either not been following the situation in Egypt closely or are ideologically disinclined to believe that Egyptians and Arabs are capable of forging and maintaining a democracy.

Since protests began on 25 January, I have been following events very closely. In fact, for an expatriate Egyptian who has long dreamed of democracy in his homeland, the demonstrations have made compulsive viewing and have filled me with the urge to fly back to Egypt. In all the endless hours of footage I’ve watched, I have not seen any protesters chanting Islamist slogans, burning American or Israeli flags, or chanting death to Israel.

Instead, protesters, mostly ordinary people from across Egypt and from all walks of life and from the country‘s two main religious groups, are out to protest economic inequality and demand their political freedom. They have been making very clear and precise demands: the immediate removal of President Hosni Mubarak and his entire regime, the appointment of a transitional “national salvation” government and the holding of free and fair democratic elections as soon as possible.

Although millions have taken to the streets, the demonstrations have been peaceful and orderly, and this in a country famed for its semi-disorganised chaos, and despite the regime’s best efforts to lock down communications and transport networks. In fact, the only violence so far has come from the government and not the people, as demonstrated by the violent police reaction to early protests and the government-backed goons and thugs that turned Tahrir (Liberation) Square, the symbolic heart of the protests into a battlefield in a bid to intimidate the protesters into submission.

But still they refused to be intimidated, those Egyptians whom so many had dismissed, including themselves, as lacking the steadfastness and wherewithal to challenge the status quo. In spite of the fallen and despite being beaten, battered, abandoned and under siege, they came out in their millions across the country for the ‘Friday of Departure’, although at the time of writing the diehard dictator was still refusing to depart.

When not under attack by police or the regime’s thugs, the demos have often been marked by an almost carnival air, with people singing and dancing and employing the wry wit for which Egyptians are well-known throughout the Arab world to scathing effect.

Despite all these clear singles, there are widespread fears in Israel that the Muslim Brotherhood is waiting in the wings to take over power. “In a situation of chaos, an organised Islamist body can seize control of a country. It happened in Iran. It happened in other instances,” Israeli Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu said following a meeting with German Chancellor Angela Merkel, reflecting the tone of speculation across much of the Israeli political spectrum.

So, could we be on the path towards the creation of the Islamic Republic of Egypt?

Well, the longstanding theory, exploited by Mubarak and other dictators, that when presented with democratic choice, Arabs would vote in Islamists who would then strip citizens of their democratic rights and so it is best to prop up friendly dictators is not only inaccurate but insulting, arrogant and unfair. It is like saying that democracy is something only “civilised” peoples can comprehend and uphold, and, hence, Arabs have no right to aspire to it.

I highly doubt that the Muslim Brotherhood will succeed, in a post-Mubarak democratic Egypt, of gaining complete control of the country through an Islamic counterrevolution, even if Iran itself, for propaganda purposes, has drawn parallels between its own revolution and current events in Egypt.

But there is a world of difference between Iran in 1979 and Egypt in 2011. For one, the Egyptian Sunni clergy are not politicised and are not held in the same kind of awe as their Shi’a counterparts. Iran had the charismatic and “holy” cult figure Ayatollah Khomeini, while the Muslim Brotherhood is largely made up of conservative and rather grey professionals in suits, i.e. doctors, lawyers and engineers.

More significantly, the party missed the boat in this revolution by refusing to take part in the protests, which were actually initiated by disaffected and disempowered youth, or back them until it was clear to everyone that they were unstoppable. The movement’s top brass, under the conservative and cautious leadership of Mohammed Badie, have proven themselves not only to be out of touch with the popular mood, but also with the younger, more open-minded generation within their own ranks.

In addition, one factor behind the Muslim Brotherhood’s apparent success and popularity, with the movement often described as Egypt’s largest opposition party, is the fact that they were kind of the “last man left standing” after the secular opposition was purged, starting in the 1970s under former president Anwar el-Sadat who also backed the Islamist current as a counterbalance to his powerful secular opponents.

But now, with freedom beckoning and plurality around the corner, the Brotherhood can no longer play the dual role of being both the last protest party for the disenfranchised and the demon used by the regime to scare the outside world. In fact, with the emergence of democracy, the Brotherhood, as Egypt’s second oldest party (though one that has been banned for most of its existence), would only be one of Egypt’s many political and social movements, albeit a fairly influential one, and could perhaps eventually morph into a sort of “Muslim Democratic” party. As a secular progressive, I have little love for the Muslim Brotherhood, but if there are Egyptians who wish to vote for them, that‘s their choice to make.

That said, even for religious Egyptians, the Brotherhood is not the only show in town, especially since more and more people are discovering that their slogan “Islam is the answer” has not really answered anything. For example, one hijabbed female protester interviewed by al-Jazeera insisted that, though she was a devout Muslim, she would not vote for the Brotherhood, because, for her, religion was a private affair.

More importantly, I cannot help thinking that Israel is drawing the wrong lessons from the Iranian revolution. To my mind, what the Iranian revolution demonstrates is that if you suppress people’s desire for freedom for too long and back tyrants and dictators, then eventually extremism will emerge. Had the CIA not bankrolled a coup d’etat against Iran’s democratically elected prime minister, Mohammad Mosaddeq, in 1953 and reinstated the Shah, then the Islamic revolution would probably never have occurred and the West would enjoy more cordial relations with a free and democratic Iran.

By urging the United States and Europe to help Mubarak cling on to power, Israel could unwittingly be helping to create the monster it fears. Luckily, it appears that US President Barack Obama has apparently drawn the correct lessons from history with his insistence that only the Egyptian people can determine their leaders.

Besides, at its heart, the Arab-Israeli conflict is about land and a clash of competing nationalisms. For instance, it wasn’t so long ago that Israel and the United States feared Arab secularists and supported Islamists as a counterbalance against them.

So, Israelis would do well to heed the advice of one protester on Tahrir Square. “If Israel continues to support Mubarak, we will start to hate Israel more and more,” he said. “Israel has to give up. Now Israel is a friend of one man, of Mubarak, but tomorrow it needs to be a friend of 80 million.”

Moreover, democracy is a value that you either believe in or you do not. You cannot say that dictatorship is fine as long as it serves our interests and affects other people. To illustrate how ridiculous this notion is, it would be like saying that because Israel voted in the most extremist government in living memory, Israelis no longer deserve to rule themselves and should have a dictatorship imposed upon them.

So, what are the likely effects of democracy on Egypt’s relations with Israel?

Since most of Egypt’s political class is unhappy with Israel’s ongoing occupation and oppression of the Palestinians, the cold Egyptian-Israeli peace would remain just as cool or may well chill a few degrees, regardless of the composition of a future democratic government.

Nevertheless, the peace treaty is binding on Egypt, has brought it stability and most Egyptians do not want to go to war with Israel, so I don’t think any Egyptian government would risk reneging on it. It is likely, however, to do the bare minimum to respect it and, fuelled by popular sympathy for the plight of the Palestinians, especially those in Gaza, will probably end Egypt’s co-operation in maintaining the inhumane Gaza blockade.

If Israel values its relationship with Egypt and wishes the current cold peace to thaw and become a warm one, then it needs to reach a just resolution to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. As long as that festering wound remains, Israeli-Egyptian relations will remain rocky and tense.

So, in many ways, the ball is in Israel’s court. Although Israelis are fond of saying that Arabs and Palestinians “never miss an opportunity to miss an opportunity”, and they have missed a fair number of those, the evidence suggests that the main obstacle to peace has been Israeli intransigence, founded on military might and a reluctance to cede conquered territory. But this has come at a heavy human price for the Palestinians, who live under an increasingly draconian and repressive occupation. It has also carried a heavy moral price for Israel and isolated it not only regionally but increasingly internationally.

As then President Anwar el-Sadat warned with prescience in his historic speech to the Knesset in 1977: “In all sincerity, I tell you that there can be no peace without the Palestinians. It is a grave error of unpredictable consequences to overlook or brush aside this cause.”

This article was first published in The Jerusalem Post on 5 February 2011.

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